Trump or DeSantis? Democrats aren’t sure who they’d rather see Biden face in 2024

While some would prefer a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, others believe the president has a better shot at defeating Ron DeSantis

WASHINGTON — Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis? Democrats are torn on which of the two Republican front-runners they would rather face in the 2024 presidential election, according to conversations with a dozen Democratic strategists.

The conventional wisdom among many in the party is that President Joe Biden would have better odds in a rematch against Trump. The former president lost in 2020, he mobilizes the Democratic base and he has a brand that’s become toxic to many swing voters. Plus, the thinking goes, DeSantis’ relative youth presents a tougher contrast for Biden, and the Florida governor’s unknowability on the national stage means Democrats can’t simply dust off a winning playbook against him.

“I would rather see Biden face Trump because we know how to beat him,» said Celinda Lake, a veteran pollster who advised Bill Clinton in 1992 and has since counted a long list of prominent Democrats as clients. «We beat him once, we can beat him again. And I think he’s definitely further alienated the suburban female vote.»

But another group of Democrats sees DeSantis as the easier candidate to beat. Trump has strengths that DeSantis doesn’t, they say: Trump is more charismatic, better at retail politics and has a unique ability to stir up GOP voters and get them to the polls that the Florida governor hasn’t proved he can do on the big stage.

“I think DeSantis comes off as very unlikable. Trump, at least, is good at retail politics; DeSantis isn’t. A lot of his act comes off as performative theater,” said Michael Starr Hopkins, a Democratic strategist who advised Charlie Crist’s losing 2022 campaign for Florida governor to DeSantis.

Hopkins predicted that DeSantis won’t be as effective nationally as he has been in the Republican-friendly Sunshine State.

“Trump has 30% of the base no matter what. And DeSantis doesn’t have a built-in base the way that Trump does,” Hopkins said. “He doesn’t have the strength of Trump’s base. And so there are a lot of the MAGA coalition that I don’t think are going to go along with DeSantis just because they see him as an anti-Trump rather than being an acolyte of Trump.”

The debate comes as Democrats rally around Biden, who has made it clear he intends to run for re-election. Facing no serious primary challenger to his renomination, party elites have little to do in the presidential arena but map out how to run against their opponent next fall — and ponder which of the two Republican front-runners they’d be more likely to defeat in a general election.

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